Asimovic, Nejla, Ruth K. Ditlmann, and Cyrus Samii."Estimating the effect of intergroup contact over years: Evidence from a youth program in Israel."Political Science Research and Methods(2024).
We study how an intervention combining youth intergroup contact and sports affects intergroup relations in the context of an active conflict. We first conduct a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of one-year program exposure in Israel. To track effects of a multiyear exposure, we then use machine-learning techniques to fuse the RCT with the observational data gathered on multiyear participants. This analytical approach can help overcome frequent limitations of RCTs, such as modest sample sizes and short observation periods. Our evidence cannot affirm a one-year effect on outgroup regard and ingroup regulation, although we estimate benefits of multiyear exposure among Jewish-Israeli youth, particularly boys. We discuss implications for interventions in contexts of active conflict and group status asymmetry.
Asimovic, Nejla, Jonathan Nagler, and Joshua A. Tucker."Replicating the Effects of Facebook Deactivation in an Ethnically Polarized Setting."Research & Politics10, no. 4 (2023).
The question of how social media usage impacts societal polarization continues to generate great interest among both the research community and broader public. Nevertheless, there are still very few rigorous empirical studies of the causal impact of social media usage on polarization. To explore this question, we replicate the only published study to date that tests the effects of social media cessation on interethnic attitudes (Asimovic et al., 2021). In a study situated in Bosnia and Herzegovina, the authors found that deactivating from Facebook for a week around genocide commemoration in Bosnia and Herzegovina had a negative effect on users’ attitudes toward ethnic outgroups, with the negative effect driven by users with more ethnically homogenous offline networks. Does this finding extend to other settings? In a pre-registered replication study, we implement the same research design in a different ethnically polarized setting: Cyprus. We are not able to replicate the main effect found in Asimovic et al. (2021): in Cyprus, we cannot reject the null hypothesis of no effect. We do, however, find a significant interaction between the heterogeneity of users’ offline networks and the deactivation treatment within our 2021 subsample, consistent with the pattern from Bosnia and Herzegovina. We also find support for recent findings (Allcott et al., 2020; Asimovic et al., 2021) that Facebook deactivation leads to a reduction in anxiety levels and suggestive evidence of a reduction in knowledge of current news, though the latter is again limited to our 2021 subsample.
Asimovic, Nejla, Jonathan Nagler, Richard Bonneau, and Joshua A. Tucker."Testing the Effects of Facebook Usage in an Ethnically Polarized Setting."Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences118, no. 25 (2021).
Amid growing belief that social media exacerbates polarization, little is known about the causal effects of social media on ethnic outgroup attitudes. Through an experiment in Bosnia and Herzegovina where users refrained from Facebook usage during 1 wk of heightened identity salience, we find that—counter expectations—people who deactivated their accounts reported lower outgroup regard than the group that remained active, but this effect was likely conditional on the level of ethnic heterogeneity of respondents’ residence. Additionally, we replicate findings from a study on US users: Deactivation led to a decrease in news knowledge and suggestive improvements in subjective wellbeing. Our findings bring nuance to popular beliefs, frequently dichotomous and simplistic, of social media’s impact on societal dynamics.
WORK IN PROGRESS
Asimovic, Nejla."Unlocking Outgroup Access Online: Evidence From Cyprus."Under Review.
In regions with frozen conflicts, where group divisions span not only geographical but also linguistic lines, how does the high cost of accessing the outgroup affect interethnic relations, and how can it be reduced? When constraints hinder access to outgroup members, the online environment provides a distinct opportunity for unmediated and private exposure to the outgroup. Yet, this potential remains particularly unrealized in contexts that are linguistically divided, further exacerbating information disparities. To assess the feasibility and impact of lowering the cost of outgroup access online, I instructed Greek-speaking and Turkish-speaking Cypriots to seek outgroup content of their interest over the course of two weeks, aided by translation tools. The results show significantly improved attitudes and behavioral intentions toward ethnic outgroups, particularly among minority group members and those unaffected by conflict displacement. Complementing experimental data with surveys, interviews, and online discourse analysis, I highlight the positive effects that online immersion in outgroup spaces can have on those with limited offline exposure opportunities. However, this is contingent upon reducing language barriers and providing participants with agency to explore outgroup spaces as they wish. I contend that doing so is especially potent, as it enables the witnessing of conflicts within the outgroup, fosters an awareness of shared similarities, and thus reduces anxiety, ultimately challenging the prevalent perception of the outgroup as uniformly hostile. The findings also highlight the cost of outgroup access as an important factor in explaining differing outcomes in recent studies about the effects of social media usage on ethnic polarization in post-conflict areas.
Asimovic, Nejla and Ruth Ditlmann."Cross-Group Friends and Feeling Empowered as Keys for the Success of Intergroup Contact Programs in Divided Societies."Under Review.
Structured intergroup programs provide a unique opportunity for youth in divided societies to come together and engage in shared activities. This research examines what makes such programs effective through survey findings from youth participants in an initiative that embeds intergroup contact in a sports program facilitated by the same global organization across Northern Ireland, Cyprus, Israel, and South Africa. Our hypotheses focus on the pivotal roles of cross-group friendships and empowerment in shaping prejudice reduction, ingroup-oriented reconciliation efforts, and self-efficacy development – outcomes crucial for bridging communities in divided societies. Using structural equation modeling, we find that program duration directly and indirectly influences self-efficacy whereas it influences prejudice reduction and reconciliation efforts only indirectly through cross-group friendships and empowerment. In doing so, this paper highlights what mechanisms are key for the success of intergroup contact interventions that want to facilitate constructive relations and foster positive change among youth in divided societies.
Asimovic, Nejla, Megan Brown, Maggie Macdonald, Rajeshwari Majumdar, and Lena Song."Reaching Across the Political Aisle: Overcoming Challenges in Using Social Media for Recruiting Politically Diverse Respondents."Under Review.
A challenge for public opinion surveys is achieving representativeness of respondents across demographic groups. We test the extent to which ideological alignment with a survey's sponsor shapes differential partisan response and users' choice of whether to participate in a research study on Facebook. While the use of Facebook advertisements for recruitment has increased in recent years and offers potential benefits, it can yield difficulties in recruiting politically representative samples. We recruit respondents for a short survey through two otherwise identical advertisements associated with either New York University (from a liberal state) or the University of Mississippi (from a conservative state). Contrary to our expectations, we don't find an asymmetry in completion rates between self-reported Democrats and Republicans based on the survey sponsor. Nor do we find statistically significant differences in attitudes of respondents across the two survey sponsors when we control for observables.
Asimovic, Nejla, Mateo Vásquez-Cortés, and Kevin Munger."Bridging the Digital Divide: Data Access and Integration of Venezuelan Migrants in Colombia."
The crisis in Venezuela has forced nearly two million people to seek refuge in Colombia, creating significant challenges for both the displaced individuals and the Colombian government. A notable hurdle is the limited internet access that impedes the acquisition of crucial information on government programs, economic opportunities, and social networks. In collaboration with Innovations for Poverty Action Colombia and the National Planning Department of Colombia, our study aims to assess the impact of enhanced data access on the lives of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia. Specifically, we seek to measure how improved data access influences their awareness of assistance programs, trust in the government, success in the job market, and overall well-being. To achieve this, we provide mobile data credits to a selected sample of Venezuelan migrants in Colombia who currently lack internet access. Within this sample, a subgroup receives WhatsApp messages directly from a moderator trained by Colombian government officials, with the delivery method varying – some participants receive messages within WhatsApp groups, fostering networking among themselves, while others receive messages directly from the moderator. These messages offer information about available social programs and actively encourage enrollment on an online portal. By analyzing the impact of this intervention through attitudinal and behavioral data, we aim to gain valuable insights that can inform policies to strengthen connections between migrants and host countries. Furthermore, we seek to leverage the widespread use of WhatsApp as a means to enhance public service delivery.
Rathje, Steven, Nejla Asimovic, Claire Robertson, Joshua A. Tucker, and Jay Van Bavel."Global Examination of the Causal Impact of Social Media Reduction."
With nearly five billion people globally active on social media platforms, an ongoing debate surrounds its influence on group relations and well-being. However, existing studies often rely on correlational approaches or predominantly focus on samples from the United States or Western Europe. In response to these limitations, we propose a comprehensive global field experiment involving more than 20 countries. In this extensive international collaboration, half of the participants will be randomly assigned to reduce their social media usage (Facebook, X, TikTok, YouTube, and Instagram) for two weeks. Our study aims to empirically test several pre-specified hypotheses concerning the causal impact of social media reduction on intergroup attitudes, well-being, and news knowledge. The global nature of this endeavor will enable us to explore variations in the effects of social media reduction across different world regions, with the intention of advancing the current dichotomous debate on the effects of social media to an examination of conditions under which specific social media effects can be observed. We hope that the outcomes of this global experiment may offer valuable insights into the ongoing debates surrounding the impact of social media on individuals across diverse cultural and political contexts.
Asimovic, Nejla."Testing the Effects of Spotlighting Common Ground Across Political Divides."
In times of heightened polarization, finding common ground across political groups can seem elusive. Whether due to divisive elite rhetoric, growing segregation, or selective exposure that fuels one's innate cognitive tendencies, people tend to underestimate points of agreement across groups while exaggerating differences. In this project, I collaborate with an online dialogue platform that brings people across political divides together, and introduce novel features specifically designed to identify and increase the visibility of points of cross-group agreement. I assign users to discuss political topics for two weeks in one of two settings: the ``common ground'' algorithm, which ranks user-generated messages by the level of cross-group agreement they receive and displays agreement levels, or the ``engagement'' algorithm, where the ranking is based on the total engagement with the messages as a sum of different possible reactions. I estimate the effects on affective polarization, as well as on the perceptions of outgroup homogeneity and common ground between the two groups, aiming to provide theoretical insights into how exposure to cross-group agreement can reduce animosity towards the outgroup. Additionally, I aim to provide practical insights on how digital technologies can help enhance cross-group understanding instead of deepening divisions.
Asimovic, Nejla and Diana Mutz."Why Contemporary Elections Reduce American Social Trust."
Trust among Americans in major societal institutions and the federal government has undergone a notable decline, reaching near-record lows in recent years. Simultaneously, social trust – a generalized belief in others – is notably also on the decline, posing concerns for a well-functioning society. This study suggests that, particularly in politicized regions, proxied by the number of registered voters or high affective polarization, an individual's alignment with the winning or losing side of an election significantly influences post-election social trust. However, we posit that increased political diversity in a region may alleviate the adverse effects of election loss on social trust by offering more opportunities to view others beyond the lens of mere political opponents. To test this, we employ a random probability panel capturing the political attitudes of US residents aged 18 and above (eight waves, 2016 to 2020). Our findings reveal that aligning with the winning party increases social trust in the post-election period, while aligning with the losing party decreases it. Importantly, the impact of election outcomes on social trust is tempered in areas with a narrower election margin at the county level, aligning with our hypothesis of political diversity mitigating the effect. In summary, this study illuminates the intricate dynamics between electoral results and societal trust, deepening our understanding of how election outcomes can shape broader social cohesion.
OTHER WRITING
Asimovic, Nejla and Amie Scheerder."Navigating the Media Landscape in the 21st Century: The Role of Critical Media Literacy in Bosnia and Herzegovina."Center for Sustainable Peace and Democratic Development.